DynVar & S-RIP Workshop: 6-10 June 2016
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation:
Confronting Model Biases and Uncovering Mechanisms
Persistent biases in forecast and climate prediction systems hinder our ability to model circulation changes, both in seasonal forecasting and in climate projections. SPARC Dynvar has established a set of diagnostics (DynVarMIP, endorsed by CMIP6) to enable a mechanistic approach to confront model biases and understand the underlying causes behind circulation changes. This workshop is an action to launch this effort and reinforce connections between the modeling centers involved in DynVarMIP and the wider research community. As atmospheric reanalyses provide a vital connection between models and the real Earth, we will meet jointly with a subset of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) focused on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and the Stratospheric-Tropospheric Coupling.
Presentations are called for analysis of seasonal prediction, CMIP, and idealized models on:
- The origin and consequences of systematic models biases in the context of atmospheric dynamics; with a focus on:tropical – extratropical connections, storm tracks, polar vortex and sea ice variability.
- The role of atmospheric dynamics in shaping the climate response to anthropogenic forcing (e.g. global warming, ozone depletion).
- How dynamical processes contribute to uncertainty in climate prediction at seasonal and decadal time scales.
The workshop will provide a forum for:
- Discussion on how best analyze the CMIP6 diagnostics that will be available via DynVarMIP, which targets the DECK experiments (AMIP, abrupt4xCO2 and 1pctCO2), the CMIP6 historical and the ScenarioMIP RCP8.5 experiments, as well as selected experiments within VolMIP, AeroChemMIP, and HiResMIP, where there is natural overlap in scientific interest.
- Explore the possibility of coordinated idealized experiments on dynamical processes
Geoffrey Vallis, Elizabeth Barnes, Judith Perlwitz, Shigeo Yoden, Ayrton Zadra (tentative)
Ed Gerber, Alexey Karpechko and Elisa Manzini
For registration, abstract submission, logistic information, please visit the workshop website at SPARC.
DynVar Workshop 3 (April 2013)
The 3rd SPARC DynVar workshop has has taken place jointly with the 1st SPARC SNAP Workshop, 22-26 April 2013, in Reading, England, UK.
The outcomes of the workshop are reported on the SPARC Newsletter 41 (Manzini et al, p 40) July 2013.
DynVar Workshop 2 (November 2010)
The SPARC DynVar Activity has held its 2nd workshop in Boulder, Colorado, USA, 3-5 November 2010. The Workshop was kindly hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory’s (ESRL) Physical Sciences Division in collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at University of Colorado, and was held at NOAA ESRL David Skaggs Research Center.
The outcomes of the workshop are reported on the SPARC Newsletter 36 (Manzini et al, p 19) January 2011.
Background: The SPARC DynVar Activity long-term goals are to determine the dependence of the mean climate, climate variability, and climate change on stratospheric dynamics as represented in Climate Models. Since the planning of the DynVar Workshop 1 (held in Toronto, Canada, 27-28 March 2008), a number of new works have appeared in the literature contributing to our knowledge on how stratospheric representation operates in climate models. In part because of these advancements, a few climate modeling groups are now planning to undertake the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments with models that include a well-resolved stratosphere. Interest in models with a well-resolved stratosphere has also led to the Stratosphere resolving Historical Forecast Project (SHFP), part of WCRP’s Climate Variability and Predictability Project (CLIVAR), aimed at quantify improvements in actual predictability by initialising and resolving the stratosphere in seasonal forecast systems.
The aim of the SPARC DynVar Workshop 2 was to provide a forum for discussing the scientific advancements in the key areas central to the Activity and for planning on how best the Activity can continue to advance the inclusion of a well-resolved dynamical stratosphere in Climate Models (coupled atmosphere ocean-seaice models) and Earth System Models (including also atmospheric chemistry and/or biogeochemical cycles).
Presentations were called for (but not restricted to) the following highlighted key areas:
- Influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric circulation, on the ocean circulation via air-sea interactions, and on the cryosphere (in particular the sea ice field);
- Role of the stratosphere in the tropospheric circulation response to climate change, and the implications of this for oceanic and cryospheric climate change responses;
- Mechanisms of two-way stratosphere-troposphere coupling in climate models, to understand why the behaviors of models differ between each other.
Participation from modeling groups was called for:
- Presentation of the status of the CMIP5 runs with models with a well-resolved stratosphere;
- Discussion on how to best analyze, make full use, and exchange knowledge from the ensembles of CMIP5 runs, with the role of the stratosphere in focus;
- Discussion how to best analyze CLIVAR’s SHFP runs;
- New results and reports on experience gained from the analysis of the SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model
COMBINE project side event: The SPARC DynVar Workshop 2 is organized in collaboration with the COMBINE EC project. A COMBINE side event (by invitation) took place the day before the workshop, 2 November 2010. The COMBINE side event was kindly hosted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
SPONSORS: CIRES, COMBINE, NOAA, NCAR, and SPARC’s WCRP.
DynVar Workshop Committe: E Manzini, M A Giorgetta, J Perlwitz, L M Polvani, F Sassi, and A Scaife
Synthesis from DynVar Workshop 1 (March 2008)
This document summarizes the results from the survey that was distributed prior to the DynVar planning workshop. The outcome of the Workshop is reported in the SPARC Newsletter 32 (Kushner et al., SPARC Dynamics and Variability Project (DynVar): Plans and Status, SPARC Newsletter 32, 13-16, 2009).